Emerging energy industry planning apparent "5 trillion," or lift investment waves
In 2008, turned out to 4 trillion economic stimulus will be on the card index from 1664 points to 3478 points to push. Now, ready to come out of the 5 trillion investment plans focus on the emerging energy industry, but also in the A-share market will be set off what the tidal wave? Which listed companies will be investing this time in the lucky feast?
5 trillion plan cocoon
Market parties awaited new energy industry development plan, after many changes and improvement, the group has entered the final approval stage, and is expected to formally introduce the third quarter of this year. July 20, in the first half of 2010 the economic situation of the energy conference, the National Energy Board Planning and Development Secretary, said Jiang Bing, new energy industry development plan has been prepared and is ready to be reported by the State Council for approval procedures.
In fact, the new energy industry development plan of introduction of early expectations among all parties in the market, but the river ice was first proposed at the meeting of 5 trillion investment plan is still the A-share market triggered a shock. According to Jiang Bing introduced the plan to be in the 2011-2020 decade, to open their markets to attract foreign investment within the means, the cumulative increase in direct investment of 500 trillion yuan, the development of the Mainland emerging energy industry. Insiders pointed out that if the count of related industries, driven by the overall scale of the development of new energy industry is likely to reach the final tens of trillions.
Jiang Bing said, and the media had reported the "new energy plan," The difference is that the emerging energy industry development plan includes not only wind, hydropower and nuclear power, including the upgrade of traditional energy sources. The plan mainly for advanced nuclear energy, wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, and other new unconventional natural gas and renewable energy, and new energy development and utilization of clean coal, smart grid, distributed energy, automotive new energy and other energy industrial application of new technologies to make a clear deployment.
Be noted that, in the emerging energy industry development plan when the bud, China's "second five" energy development plan is also prepared. According to the "second Five Year Plan", 2020, non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption of about 15% more than important, carbon dioxide emissions intensity per unit of GDP in 2005 fell 40% to 45%, these two goals to some extent also required by the new energy industry development plan to take, to a certain extent, reflects the planning and implementation efforts.
A policy analyst, said China's economic growth rely on a lot of resources, capital investment, along with the rising cost of production materials, resources and environmental constraints and international competition, changes in the pattern, the original mode of development is an urgent need to improve, the program invest 5 trillion for the construction of new industries, has great significance.
In the long-term positive or
There is no doubt that when the new energy industry policy of 5 trillion came from officials at the mouth of a doubt that while almost all investors in the brain - in 2008, turned out to be 4 trillion on economic stimulus push the Shanghai index points from 1664 to 3478, when the program is ready to invest 5 trillion focused on the emerging energy industry when they will set off in the A share market kind of tidal wave?
From the market performance, in good came later, on July 21, including nuclear technology, CSG A, Goldwind, Tianwei change and other new energy stocks soared in early trading group. But after a brief madness, become more rational market funds, most of the new energy stocks finished lower, leaving a long upper shadow.
Insiders pointed out that although the 5 trillion this data exciting, but it blindly with 4 trillion economic stimulus to equate, or even only from the number and scope of investment to infer its influence will be stronger than the 4 trillion, or 5 trillion investment plan that marks the arrival of a new bull market is not accurate because between the two there is a huge difference, invest 5 trillion more in the long-term good.
On the one hand, within the meaning of 5 trillion river ice investment planning period 2011 to 2020, spanning 10 years, evenly distributed down the amount of annual investment of about 500 billion in the short term, to promote the effect is not obvious; other On the one hand, the policy introduced in 2008 to 4 trillion to stimulate the economic stabilization and recovery, and this one more 5 trillion investment plan is to promote industrial restructuring, to achieve the purpose of energy saving. From this analysis, the 5 trillion short-term investment plan to stimulate the economy, promoting the role of A shares will be weaker than 4 trillion policies, more positive in the medium to long term.
Investment path analysis
Even short-term 5 trillion investment plan with limited impact on the market, but can not deny that the plan to bring the mid-market confidence. Great Wall Securities analyst Zhou Tao said that the new energy promotion plan has been proposed since the beginning of 2009, the market long-awaited, had been tired. But government officials on emerging energy promotion plan submitted to the State position of the point in time, to coincide with market valuation of close to historic lows. Is beginning to rebound in a context, the inevitable hot new energy market.
There is no doubt, contains 5 trillion investment in the investment opportunity is huge. According to Jiang said on the ice at the news conference, planning the content, "mainly for advanced nuclear energy, wind, solar and other new energy and renewable energy, new energy and energy vehicle industrial application of new technologies made a clear deployment", which before the introduction of a policy nature, stock picking stocks 5 trillion program, has become the focus of many industry studies.
According to the analysis of the Great Wall Securities, in accordance with the development of China's energy development plan, substantial increase in nuclear power and renewable energy development and supply capacity has become an inevitable choice. The 5 trillion investment, about 60% will be used for nuclear power, wind power, solar and other new energy investment, and 40% of the funds will be used to upgrade traditional energy sources, which total about 500 billion yuan investment in the grid, power cell vehicles could reach 1 trillion subsidy scale, and distributed energy, clean coal utilization of about 500 billion yuan.
Securities of state pointed out that the huge investment of up to 5 trillion will greatly promote the development of related industries, especially nuclear energy, wind energy, solar, clean coal, smart grids, the new energy automotive industry will usher in the core of a huge market space. In the new energy industry sub-sectors, the focus is optimistic about natural gas and wind power. (Each. .. By day. Economy. New. Wen Li. Chi)
Opportunities for wind power nuclear power was no big breakthrough photovoltaic fear
As has been repeatedly stir plate to nuclear power, wind power and solar energy as the representative of the traditional concept of a new trend this year, shares not outstanding. However, in contrast to the emerging energy industry investment planning under the impetus of the new energy industry's traditional outlook is not necessarily bleak.
Nuclear power sector worth the wait
July 20, 5 trillion plan has been submitted to the State Department's lead in nuclear science and technology news (000 777), southerly shares (300,004) and other shares of the transaction. Because the industry is generally speculated that nuclear power equipment industry will benefit significantly.
According to China's "second five" energy development plan, by 2020 non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption, the proportion will reach 15%. Great Wall Securities estimates, based on our existing nuclear, wind, light, biomass and other resources, nuclear power capacity by 2020 is expected to add 60 million kilowatts. According to nuclear power to 1.2 yuan / kW cost estimates, will reach 720 billion yuan investment, the domestic nuclear power equipment manufacturers will usher in the next 10 years more than 700 billion of the "big cake." For this reason, nuclear power has become a new energy in most institutions favor of the plate.
Xiang financial securities that the implementation of our operating units on strict licensing system. Therefore, nuclear grade equipment qualification can be seen as the core competitiveness of enterprises, high technical threshold determines the uniqueness of the concept of nuclear power companies. Dongfang Electric (600,875) and Shanghai Electric (601,727) Basic monopoly of the nuclear island equipment, competitive advantage (310,368) was significantly, and in nuclear science and technology as the only nuclear group following a public company, future development is also of concern.
Wind power hidden trading opportunities
In 2009, domestic new wind power installed capacity reached 13,803.2 MW-than-expected, growth has doubled in six consecutive years, making wind power sector became the focus of the market stir. The 5 trillion investment plan and the "wind power technology standards," the announcement, the wind power sector is expected to provide some trading opportunities.
The industry generally believes that the National Energy Board led the development of China's "wind power technology standard" plan announced in August. The standard is to implement "the implementation of renewable energy generation full protection of the acquisition system", will focus on aspects of wind farm grid specifications. Wind power technology, the introduction of standards, will help wind energy resource utilization, wind power and network to effectively alleviate the difficult problem of making wind power will have a greater development prospects and opportunities.
A brokerage analyst said that in the upcoming new energy development plan, the plan on wind energy will be appropriate adjustments in the original plan on the basis of 30 million kilowatts a substantial increase, the maximum will be increased to 80 million kilowatts. According to the current one kilowatt cost of 8000 yuan to 10,000 yuan to calculate, the total investment of up to wind power to 10,000 yuan. Therefore, the relevant listed company Goldwind (002202), Zhenhua Heavy Industry (600320) (600320, closing price of 6.84 yuan), etc. It should be noted.
PV is still growing worry trap
As with nuclear power, wind power to keep pace with new energy, solar photovoltaic power generation is also the main way to use long-term interest of funds in the market range. However, according to a number of brokerage estimates, new industry development plan 5 trillion investment, the investment in the photovoltaic industry to obtain the previous market expectations may be roughly equal, and not too obvious growth.
Meanwhile, since 2009, prices fell nearly 50% of silicon, polysilicon price declines even approaching 80%, volume and price down making photovoltaic gross margin and net profit margin class level of the company significantly reduced. In 2010, the price of PV systems is expected to continue to decline. Xiangcai that from 2010 to 2014, the PV industry is expected to average growth rate of 20% to 30%, but because the industry is strongly dependent on the larger economic environment and government support programs, possible future global demand is still greater fluctuation . (Each. Day. By. Economy. New. Wen Li. Chi)
Smart grid construction will begin to grasp the five sub-sectors
In 2009, the State Grid Corporation of China was first proposed smart grid development plan, and established the overall development goals. According to the plan, the construction of our smart grid is divided into three phases, the upcoming 2011 to 2015 for the full construction phase. The industry believes that the development of smart grid is the grid trend, the big national grid smart grid investment in the next few years is an important guarantee for stable growth, investment in smart grid need to take several key industry segments.
2011 will enter the construction period
From the construction progress of the smart grid, in 2009 and 2010 planning pilot phase, mainly development planning, standards, and expand the various aspects of the experimental work; 2011 to 2015 for the construction phase, to speed up the UHV power grid construction and urban and rural distribution network , the initial formation of the smart power grid control systems and interactive services, key technologies and equipment to achieve major breakthroughs and applications; 2016 to 2020 to lead the upgrade phase, completion of the unified comprehensive "Smart Grid" technology and equipment reached the international advanced level. .
In investment terms, the total investment in 2020, the grid size close to 4 trillion yuan, planning the pilot phase investment of about 550 billion yuan; full amount of investment in the construction phase up to about 2 trillion yuan; basically completed phase of investment 1.7 trillion yuan. With the commencement of construction of the smart grid, intelligent investment will significantly increase.
Easy Fortune Securities analyst Cho believes that intelligent building is the core of grid construction. Emphasis will be given to intelligent building "smart" in the traditional or new power distribution automation devices and systems, including related intelligent substations, FACTS, intelligent scheduling, intelligent power distribution systems, smart meters and smart charging stations and other secondary Equipment sub-industry. From the investment point of view, this year is expected to invest 240 billion yuan intelligent, comprehensive construction starting next year, two intelligent network is expected to invest 55 billion yuan annually, investment will more than double this year. Therefore, the provision of intelligent devices starting next year, company earnings will increase significantly.
Five sub-sectors the opportunity to grasp
"Once a major event on the industry, smart grid plate may be linked together!" Said a senior market, these major events, including important government officials, power company executives and industry experts known position, industry, government departments, planning or support policies introduced , and the smart grid a major field of tender. These messages appear after the incident surface of the large investment opportunities tend to happen anytime soon, investors only reserve a plate on the company's investment-related information in order to respond quickly and calmly.
CSC analyst Chen Yi-hua believes that the initial construction of the smart grid is mainly reflected in the promotion of UHV construction, electricity-side roll-out and intelligent acquisition systems, new energy and technology, digital substation pilot and so on. Therefore, in the smart grid investment, it is recommended to focus on grasping the UHV, intelligent substations, intelligent power distribution, smart power, five sub-sub-node device industry investment opportunities.
Five sub-sectors, the relevant benefit listed companies, including China's Western Electric (601,179) (601,179, closing price of 6.94 yuan), TBEA (600089) (600089, closing price of 16.11 yuan), Siyuan Electric (002,028) (002,028, closing price of 24.09 yuan), National Power South (600,268) (600,268, closing price of 17.80 yuan), Beijing Career (002,350) (002,350, closing price of 24.99 yuan), Sen Source Electric (002,358) (002,358, closing price of 40.93 yuan) , Auto News (002,227, closing price of 29.17 yuan), Hidenobu shares (002123) (002123, closing price of 33.09 yuan), etc. (Each. Day. By. Economy. New. Wen Song. Dollars. East)
Lithium was the most popular stocks in four areas of concern
In 2010, China's new energy automotive industry officially opened the curtain, national support policies from buses, taxis and other public services, greater capacity to expand to the private market consumption. In June, the private purchase of new energy vehicles, subsidies for pilot introduction of the policy opens the door to private consumption subsidies. The industry believes that the expansion of private consumption markets mean new energy automotive industry embarked on a rapid development of the "right track."
In this regard, the capital market is also an implicit benefit of new energy vehicles, or a listed company may continue to benefit from the market's hot. New energy to the vehicle battery manufacturers, to the upper reaches of battery materials, the focus of the whole industry chain company you Changba me play, two bustling market performance. In the field of new energy vehicle, the battery share the highest cost, the added value that can be expected to produce the highest among the most popular areas of strong lithium.
Lithium battery will become mainstream
Compared with conventional cars, the new energy automotive industry chain based on the extension increases the battery, motor, electric control system components. Battery is new energy automotive industry chain in the most central part. Additional components in the new energy vehicles, the battery system costs accounted for the vast majority of new, value-added generated by this part have the highest expectations. According to estimates, battery electric vehicles in the cost structure of up to 60%.
Currently suitable for new energy vehicle power source (600 405) of the battery are lead-acid batteries, nickel hydrogen batteries and lithium ion batteries, widely believed to lithium battery will become mainstream. Lithium-ion batteries are light weight, high specific energy and specific power, small size, long cycle life, no memory, self-discharge rate, temperature and many other advantages for a wide range, and has a large technical improvement and cost reduction of space, Therefore, the medium and long term, lithium battery will gradually achieve market nickel-metal hydride batteries to replace.
Investment in four major areas of lithium grasp
From a structural point of view, lithium-ion battery consists of four parts: the cathode material, anode material, electrolyte, separator and ultra-thin copper foil and other auxiliary materials. Which cathode material, electrolyte and separator is the core of the three materials, directly determine the battery safety performance, capacity, accounting for the cost of lithium-ion battery for more than 70%. The most commonly used cathode material for lithium batteries are lithium cobalt oxide, lithium manganese oxide, nickel oxide, lithium iron phosphate lithium ternary materials as well.
Fortune Securities analyst Mr Li believes that comparison, lithium iron phosphate cathode material is the best, it is the discharge power, low cost (about 18 million to 20 million / ton), fast charging and long cycle life ( 1000 times more), stability at high temperature under high heat environment. Currently, listed companies involved in the cathode material has CITIC Guoan (000,839) (000,839, closing price of 11.43 yuan), Shanshangufen (600,884) (600,884, closing price of 17.12 yuan), shopkeeper magnetic (002 056). Six chemicals (600,470) (600,470, closing price of 13.23 yuan) also recently announced its entry into the new field of energy, lithium iron phosphate is its goal.
Anode materials mainly in graphite, graphite fiber-based materials, production technology barriers low, stable supply upstream and downstream relationships is the key to competition in the industry, competition is relatively stable. China has a lot of companies engaged in the production of lithium anode material. Among them, China Baoan (000,009) (000,009, closing price of 9.69 yuan) Shenzhen Barrett's company not only has the industry's maximum capacity, but also the industry standard-setter, leading the more obvious. Shanshan's Shanghai Shanshan has 1200 tons of production capacity anode material.
Divide on the safety performance of lithium batteries have a great impact in the cost of lithium batteries represent about 25% of the composition ratio of 70% gross profit margin, is the lithium battery in the most profitable part. Domestic divide in 2005 began to market, but with foreign countries, domestic membrane thickness, strength, the overall hole absorption rate can not be taken into account, and the stability of the general, the major supplier of low-end market. Domestic listed companies involved in membrane has Fosugufen (000,973) (000,973, closing price of 12.27 yuan), a subsidiary of Jinhui High-Tech from the operation.
Electrolyte lithium batteries accounted for about 15% of the cost, gross margin of approximately 40%. At present production capacity of about 1.8 million tons of supply and demand balance, but the future of new energy vehicles, large trucks on the electrolyte demand-pull. The scale of domestic production capacity of the electrolyte with the main manufacturers in Jiangsu Guotai (002,091) (002,091, closing price of 23.83 yuan)'s Huarong Chemical Co., Dongguan Shanshan Shanshan's universe and the new state (300 037), Huafang Textile ( 600 273) days of the company's China is also planning capacity of 5,000 tons, but still in the pilot stage.
In addition, the electrolyte is the main raw materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate, accounting for more than 50% cost of the electrolyte. As the production of technical difficulty, electrolyte market is currently in Japan a few companies a monopoly, our business has not yet fully mastered the production technology, the current prototype lithium hexafluorophosphate listed company is Jiangsu Guotai and Fluoride (002,407) (002,407, closing price of 46.55 yuan .)
Analysts further believe that, due to the current high cost of new energy vehicle, less profitable, proposes a focus on upstream and downstream industrial chain of lithium, such as with mining mineral resources in Tibet (000,762) (000,762, closing price of 28.14 yuan), Road Xiang shares (002,192). Lithium foil as the main supporting material, should also be properly recognized. Kinwa (600 110) is the leading copper foil production unit, the motor and control systems, ocean motor (002,249) (002,249, closing price of 25.78 yuan), three rings (000,970) (000,970, closing price 13.13 million), Ningbo Yunsheng (600,366) (600,366, closing price of 15.06 yuan) are involved.
Anhui is "born" first silicon solar cells
July 25, 2010, Anhui's first silicon solar cells officially off the assembly line in Wuhu, Anhui Province, which marks the development of photovoltaic power generation using new energy industry has taken a solid step forward.
Not all encourage the recycling of waste batteries
25, the reporter learned from the Guangzhou City Administration, sanitation sprinkler team 12 tons from schools, hotels and other places to collect used batteries sent to Guangdong Province, treatment and disposal of all hazardous waste franchise institutions were sound processing.
Reflect the view of the current members of the public handed the waste batteries does not know where the situation, City Administration official said that the city is under way to place unwanted trash, put the battery inside the public can go. However, not all are encouraged to recycle used batteries, the state is to encourage recycling rechargeable batteries, button batteries.
Wang rehabilitation: the first person to permit recycling of used batteries
King of rehabilitation, the only professional license for recycling of waste batteries private entrepreneurs. Ten years, he changed from a pure business environment as a purely volunteer; he became penniless from a millionaire. Recycling of used batteries to do the beginning, no experience, no money, no support for the king a new leaf ... ... there is only a fanatical dedication, in reality he, like Don Quixote, the cycle in the same left and right to kill, he does not care about results, only hope someday to see the pollution in China used batteries to be radical.
"Used batteries contain large quantities of zinc, manganese, copper and other nonferrous metals, China's 2007 consumption of 15.6 billion, more than 30 tons of waste batteries, zinc metal contained in the annual equivalent of two medium-sized mines, but only 2% to be recycled ... "in the recent 12th Beijing International High-tech Fair, King of environmental rehabilitation of volunteer energy saving exhibition hall stood a row of battery recycling bins before, slightly hoarse voice to answer the a consultant to the problem.
It is understood that battery recycling in 1999 to join the rehabilitation of the King, 10 years of active running, set up battery recycling center and volunteer teams, research and development of waste battery treatment technology, environmental protection volunteers in a number of honors received almost the same time this run to the family property. And support his conviction, it is how to achieve recycling of waste industrial batteries, so they will not harm the environment completely, contains a variety of resources is no longer buried in vain in the garbage dump.
At present, the king has set up a specialized rehabilitation "Green Star" batteries volunteer service teams. Took part in a student services team, more than 5,000 cadres and other long-term volunteers to work in teams more than 100 people. Wang Zhezhi rehabilitation teams often take the street, the various communities in Beijing and units of waste batteries battery literacy and traveling exhibition.
Carbon nanotubes: Do not trouble enough for the cell phone battery
Massachusetts Institute of Technology researchers found that the use of the lithium battery cathode materials with carbon nanotubes to obtain charging efficiency and storage capacity than most high-end lithium battery better. The battery electrode assembly using layering technology, the cathode by the additive-free, high-density multi-walled carbon nanotubes and functional composition, very negative lithium titanium oxide, battery electrode thickness of only a few microns.
The lithium battery energy output per unit weight than conventional electrochemical capacitors to five times higher power output than conventional lithium-ion batteries 10 times, cycle life over thousands of times, indicating that carbon nanotubes containing lithium batteries have more than longer battery life.
The new lithium battery for the use of smart phones and other portable electronic products, the user is undoubtedly good news, but this is still in the laboratory with carbon nanotubes battery research and development stage. Constraints of this popularity is largely due to new battery, the battery is made with carbon nanotubes electrodes in the substrate before the batteries need to dissolve in two different soaking liquid, and this process is extremely time consuming. Currently the most viable proposed solution is sprayed through the substrate to the substitutability of material containing carbon nanotubes to replace the dissolved solution soak in the battery time-consuming process.
Although this electrode can be used for small portable devices at first, but further study will be used for larger equipment, such as cars. I believe that carbon nanotubes can be listed near the battery, then the use of smart phone users will no longer be enough for the cell phone battery problems and trouble.
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